this was supposed to be higher, this was supposed to be the recession play. the important thing, hard to see here but breaking through the something of a perfect double top and pulled back. i got the gold chart up five or six years. charles: you wrote about gold today on twitter. if you're looking for the juice software is one of those you look. more they sell off the faster they bounce. charles: what about software because they have been acting pretty good, some software names are acting pretty nicely? > if you're looking for the juice, the beta, those got hit the worse. i think you are in semis if you think the cyclical rally we've seen, saw last year anyway can continue to move forward. > if you're looking for that bounce in those growth areas i don't think semis where you want to go. they're in their own, we think of it like that in college football terms. they're much more growthy than something like semiconductors. Internet or software, you know, things like robinhood, those ark funds. when we both get to the level that stocks are fairly priced, even cheap, wouldn't you want to be in them before the recession turns? > so you're right but the big question here is, we've obviously seen a very large decline in stocks this year. they're both moving downs adjustments are being made. these are adjustments along with the s&p itself. charles: one thing i am seeing though, the forward p-e ratio, that is a big debate on wall street and it is holding a lot of folks back but i want to show check out the number of companies that, these are companies that are offering higher guidance. move into stocks then, so you can take advantage of any upside that is more reliant once the clouds clear a little bit more, we have more of an idea where inflation and the fed are headed, not just what they're saying they're going to do. if we see more downside in the market you want to be sure you're prepared at that point to rebalance out of cash, rebalance out of bonds at that point. so what we are saying you sit tight for now, hopefully you made some changes in preparation to your portfolio in the beginning of the year, so you're somewhere a little bit more comfortable f we continue to see the market decline which we believe is very much possible, if you look at the average decline in the case of deep recessions, not saying if we get a recession it is going to be deep but typically closer toģ4%. then you find yourself chasing rallies or you fine yourself sitting out of the market and that is not where you want to be caught because we all know when the market turns it can turn very quickly. sit tight and prepare yourself for any further down - charles: sarah, saying sit on your hands, don't even try to participate in these kind of bounces we're getting? > i would say as of now we're definitely not saying trade in and out of these bounces because it is so difficult to do for the average investor and what can happen you can get stuck on the wrong side of the trade. it is not just going to disappear even though we're having a nice four-day rally which is nice to see, that couldīe easily reversed. we're probably witnessing the volatility for very much time to come. one if you actually look at the average drawdown, the length of it in the wake of a recession it typically lasts 12 months or a little over six months in, you do have to level your expectations. > there is a couple numbers i want to point out. as you mentioned in the introduction it is interesting now like you said you would think okay, if we are entering a recession is that a bad thing for the stock market and yet stocks are rallying because interest rates are falling on expectations the fed might not have to be as aggressive. it is very clear, we've seen that over the past couple weeks. Do you start to change your approach to this market? > so markets are definitely flip-flopping between trading on inflation fears, trading on recession fears.
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